What property experts say we can expect in next 6 months

What property experts say we can expect in next 6 months

Category Property News

Expectations about how strongly the property market will finish the year have simmered down after a surprising dip in enthusiasm over the past few months. Still, some property experts hope it will improve. Others, however, are not as optimistic.

Predicting the market is always difficult, but Stuart Manning, chief executive of the Seeff Property Group, says indications are that the economy is poised for growth “if we can just clear a few hurdles”.

“Regardless of the challenges, there is always a level of activity in the market and you can still conclude a good deal provided you know where the ‘sweet spot’ is.” 

Also, he says, while many areas are struggling, some are performing well. Arnold Maritz, southern suburbs co-principal for Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty, however, believes the market will stay similar to what it is now. “It has become evident that growth in the national economy may not increase much until there is more certainty regarding the future, which will include issues around the mining charter, attracting foreign investment, and land expropriation. There may only be significant changes after the outcome of the 2019 national elections. 

“It is clear property prices and sales volumes in Cape Town will probably stay stable and at current levels for quite a while, and no immediate or short-term upswing should be expected.” Chris Cilliers, Winelands principal and chief executive of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty, hopes the market will have its natural upturn towards spring, but agrees the factors influencing the market are not likely to change much until after the elections.

Richard Hardie, chief executive of Knight Frank Residential South Africa, also does not believe the situation will change much over the next six months. But there may be green shoots towards the end of the fourth quarter, especially if it continues to rain throughout the winter.

“Also the weak rand will attract international buyers, especially in summer.”

However, Johan van Bosch, principal of Just Property in Claremont, believes the market will slow based on a number of macro factors, including: 

• The President Cyril Ramaphosa effect.
• The economy as a whole.
• The currency and the world stage.
• Local unrest. 
• Land reform.

He says Ramaphosa’s honeymoon period is waning, and the president now has to balance land reform with voter expectations. Furthermore, the business confidence index rose to 45 in the January to March period but is now down to 39.

Author: Lew Geffen Sotheby's International Realty